Publication - Annual Energy Outlook 2017 with projections to 2050
U.S. petroleum product consumption remains below 2005 levels through 2040 in most AEO2017 cases — while crude oil production rebounds from recent declines
In all cases, U.S. petroleum consumption is projected to remain below the 2005 level, the highest recorded to date, through 2040.
• Low oil prices result in increased domestic consumption in the Low Oil Price case. Simultaneously, low prices drive down domestic production, resulting in generally higher import levels.
• The domestic wellhead price does not change significantly in the economic growth cases, resulting in consumption that is similar to the Reference case level.
• Reference case U.S. crude oil production is projected to recover from recent declines, as upstream producers increase output because of the combined effects of the rise in prices from recent lows and cost reductions.
• In the Reference case, higher refinery inputs in the near term absorb higher forecast levels of U.S. crude oil production, limiting changes to imports. Eventually, net crude oil imports increase because domestic crude production does not keep pace with refinery inputs as domestic refiners expand product exports.
page source http://www.eia.gov/outlooks/
