Publication - WHITE PAPER ON THE FUTURE OF EUROPE - Reflections and scenarios for the EU27 by 2025
The drivers of Europe’s future A CHANGING - PLACE IN AN EVOLVING WORLD
Europe is home to the world’s largest single market and second most used currency. It is the largest trade power and development and humanitarian aid donor. Thanks in part to Horizon 2020, the world’s biggest multinational research programme, Europe is at the cutting edge of innovation.
Its diplomacy holds real weight and helps keep the world safer and more sustainable, as shown by the historic deal with Iran on its nuclear programme or the leading role the EU played in the Paris Climate Agreement and the adoption by the United Nations of the Sustainable Development Goals for 2030. This influence is reinforced by our close cooperation with NATO and our active role in the Council of Europe.
Europe is attractive to many of its partners. While no further accession to the EU is expected in the short term, the prospect itself is a powerful tool to project stability and security along our borders. The EU works actively with its neighbourhood whether it be in the east or in the south. From our strengthened partnership with Ukraine to the wide-ranging cooperation with our African partners, Europe’s role as a positive global force is more important than ever.
However, that status belies a simple reality: Europe’s place in the world is shrinking, as other parts of the world grow. In 1900, Europe accounted for around 25% of global population. By 2060, it will account for less than 5%. No single Member State will have more than 1% of the world population by then.
Europe’s relative economic power is also forecast to wane, accounting for much less than 20% of the world’s GDP in 2030, down from around 22% today. The rapidly rising influence of emerging economies accentuates the need for Europe to speak with one voice and to act with the collective weight of its individual parts.
The build-up of troops on our eastern borders, war and terrorism in the Middle East and Africa, and increasing militarisation around the world are vivid illustrations of an increasingly tense global context. The need to reflect on how to deter, respond and protect against threats, ranging from large-scale cyberattacks to more traditional forms of aggression, has never been so critical. NATO will continue to provide hard security for most EU countries but Europe cannot be naïve and has to take care of its own security. Being a “soft power” is no longer powerful enough when force can prevail over rules.
While the world has never been smaller or better connected, the return of isolationism has cast doubts over the future of international trade and multilateralism. Europe’s prosperity and ability to uphold our values on the world stage will continue to depend on its openness and strong links with its partners. Yet, standing up for free and progressive trade and shaping globalisation so it benefits all will be a growing challenge.
page source https://ec.europa.eu/commission/
