The Long Journey to Recovery
Read full Report Russia Economic Report 35: The Long Journey to Recovery
In 2015, the Russian economy began its difficult adjustment to the severe global oil-price shock and the imposition of economic sanctions in 2014. The impact of these twin shocks drove Russia’s economy into a deep recession, which reached its nadir in the second quarter of 2015.
The report highlights that following a brief rally early in 2015, a further decline in global oil prices derailed an anticipated recovery, put downward pressure on the ruble, and the pass-through effect pushed the inflation rate into double digits.
The conditions that pushed Russia’s economy into recession show slow signs of abating. Commodity prices in general will continue to dominate Russia’s medium-term outlook, tilted to the downside.
The economy faces strong headwinds from an uncertain global recovery. As the Russian economy gradually adapts to an adverse external environment marked by lower oil prices and ongoing economic sanctions, the focus of its economic adjustment is now shifting to fiscal and financial sector challenges. At the same time, the policy space for Russia’s continued adjustment has shrunk in light of depleting fiscal buffers.
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