SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK
U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
Growing domestic and global consumption of gasoline have contributed to higher refinery wholesale gasoline margins (the difference between the wholesale price of gasoline and the price of Brent crude oil).
Margins averaged 48 cents/gallon (gal) in 2015, compared with the previous five-year average of 25 cents/gal. Strong demand for gasoline thus far in 2016 has contributed to gasoline margins increasing to 49 cents/gal in April, compared with 42 cents/gal in April of last year. Monthly data show gasoline consumption in the United States during the first two months of 2016 was 2.8% higher than during the same two-month period last year.
The U.S. average regular gasoline retail price increased to $2.11/gal in April, 14 cents/gal higher than in March, reflecting higher crude oil prices, increasing gasoline margins, and typical seasonal price increases. Monthly average retail gasoline prices for April 2016 ranged from a low of $1.88/gal in the Gulf Coast—Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) 3—to a high of $2.58/gal in the West Coast (PADD 5). EIA expects the U.S. regular gasoline retail price to average $2.25/gal in May and to reach an annual peak of $2.28/gal in June, followed by lower prices in the second half of 2016.
Liquid Fuels Consumption
Total U.S. liquid fuels consumption increased by an estimated 290,000 b/d (1.5%) in 2015. Liquid fuels consumption is forecast to increase by 140,000 b/d (0.7%) in 2016 and by an additional 120,000 b/d (0.6%) in 2017.
Motor gasoline consumption increased by an estimated 240,000 b/d (2.7%) in 2015 to an average of 9.2 million b/d. Gasoline consumption is forecast to increase by 160,000 b/d (1.7%) to more than 9.3 b/d in 2016, which would be the highest annual average gasoline consumption on record. The previous annual average high was 9.3 million b/d in 2007. The increase in consumption reflects a forecast 2.3% increase in highway travel (because of employment growth and low retail gasoline prices) that is partially offset by increases in vehicle fleet fuel economy. In 2017, forecast gasoline consumption is close to its 2016 level.
In 2015, jet fuel consumption increased by an estimated 70,000 b/d (4.7%). Forecast jet fuel consumption is mostly unchanged through the forecast period, with improvements in average airline fleet fuel economy offsetting growth in freight and passenger travel.
Consumption of distillate fuel, which includes diesel fuel and heating oil, fell by 60,000 b/d (1.5%) in 2015, and it is expected to fall by an additional 100,000 b/d (2.5%) in 2016. Falling distillate consumption in 2016 is the result of relatively warm winter temperatures, reduced oil and natural gas drilling, and falling coal production, which has reduced diesel use in rail shipments of coal. Stronger expected economic growth in 2017 contributes to forecast distillate fuel consumption growth of 100,000 b/d (2.5%).
Hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) consumption is forecast to increase by 10,000 b/d (0.5%) in 2016 and by 50,000 b/d (2.2%) in 2017, as increased ethane consumption more than offsets reduced consumption of other HGL. U.S. ethane consumption is forecast to increase by 60,000 b/d (5.4%) in 2016, as expansion projects at ethylene-producing petrochemical plants increase feedstock demand for ethane. In 2017, forecast ethane consumption increases by an additional 80,000 b/d (7.6%), as capacity begins to ramp up at five new petrochemical plants and at a previously deactivated plant.
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pade source http://www.eia.gov/
