Publication - 03 April 2020 by Raphael Auer, Giulio Cornelli and Jon Frost - Covid-19, cash, and the future of payments
Key takeaways
• The Covid-19 pandemic has fanned public concerns that the coronavirus could be transmitted by cash. • Scientific evidence suggests that the probability of transmission via banknotes is low when compared with other frequently-touched objects, such as credit card terminals or PIN pads.
• To bolster trust in cash, central banks are actively communicating, urging continued acceptance of cash and, in some instances, sterilising or quarantining banknotes. Some encourage contactless payments.
• Looking ahead, developments could speed up the shift toward digital payments. This could open a divide in access to payments instruments, which could negatively impact unbanked and older consumers. The pandemic may amplify calls to defend the role of cash – but also calls for central bank digital currencies.
Viral transmission through banknotes and coins?
The Covid-19 pandemic has led to unprecedented public concerns about viral transmission via cash. Central banks report a large increase in queries from the media on the safety of using cash. The number of internet searches pertaining to both “cash” and “virus” is at record highs. While search interest in these terms also rose in several East Asian and European countries during the 2009–10 H1N1 pandemic, those statistics are dwarfed by the extent of recent searches (Graph 1, left-hand panel).
There are substantial cross-country differences in these concerns. Searches appear to be more prevalent where more small-denomination banknotes – the type used for daily transactions – are in circulation relative to GDP (Graph 1, right-hand panel). Overall, Australia, France, Singapore, Switzerland, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Canada, the United States, Jamaica and Kenya have had the highest recent search interest (Graph 2).
Research in microbiology examines whether pathogenic agents, including viruses, bacteria, fungi and parasites can survive on banknotes and coins (Angelakis et al, 2014). Thomas et al (2008) find that some viruses, including human flu, can persist for hours or days on banknotes, particularly when diluted in mucus (Graph 3, left-hand panel). Lopez et al (2011) find that non-porous surfaces have higher transfer efficiency, meaning that they can transmit viruses and bacteria more readily.
The Covid-19 virus can also survive on surfaces. A study by van Doremalen et al (2020) finds that Covid-19 can persist for three hours in the air, 24 hours on cardboard and even longer on other hard surfaces (Graph 3, right-hand panel).
That said, scientists note that the probability of transmission via banknotes is low when compared with other frequently-touched objects. To date, there are no known cases of Covid-19 transmission via banknotes or coins. Moreover, it is unclear if such transmission is material compared with person-toperson transmission or transmission through other objects or physical proximity.1 The fact that the virus survives best on non-porous materials, such as plastic or stainless steel, means that debit or credit card terminals or PIN pads could transmit the virus too. The head of the German public health institute notes that “(viral) transmission through banknotes has no particular significance”, as airborne droplets from infected individuals are the main infection risk.2 Moreover, experts note that washing hands after touching cash or other objects may help to reduce the risk of transmission (see references in King and Shen (2020)).
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