Economic growth, along with accompanying structural changes, strongly influences world energy consumption. As countries develop and living standards improve, energy demand grows rapidly....Research USA - EIA

Release Date: May 11, 2016

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY OUTLOOK 2016

                                 

Chapter 1. World energy demand and economic outlook

Overview

The International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) Reference case projects significant growth in worldwide energy demand over the 28-year period from 2012 to 2040. Total world consumption of marketed energy expands from 549 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2012 to 629 quadrillion Btu in 2020 and to 815 quadrillion Btu in 2040—a 48% increase from 2012 to 2040 (Table 1-1 and Figure 1-1). The IEO2016 Reference case assumes known technologies and technological and demographic trends, generally reflects the effects of current policies, and does not anticipate new policies that have not been announced (See EIA's handling of non-policies in the International Energy Outlook).

The IEO2016 Reference case projections do not include the effects of the recently finalized Clean Power Plan (CPP) regulations in the United States. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) preliminary analysis of the proposed CPP [9] shows potential reductions of 21% (about 4 quadrillion Btu) in U.S. coal consumption in 2020 and 24% (almost 5 quadrillion Btu) in 2040 relative to the IEO2016 Reference case projection. With the CPP, U.S. renewable energy use in 2020 would be 7% (about 1 quadrillion Btu) higher than in the Reference case, and in 2040 it would be 37% (4 quadrillion Btu) higher than in the Reference case. U.S. consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels and of natural gas would be slightly lower with the CPP than in the Reference case.

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